Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2020

housing market and compare those to where we are today — in the middle of one of the most epic years in our country’s history, due to COVID-19. No doubt about it, the COVID crisis has taken some juice out of the 2020 housing market. The February housing data, pre-COVID, was juicy indeed. Context is key!

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 5, 2023

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. Housing recession. That would be a positive for demand.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

This is the reason construction workers still have jobs, and that backlog needs to be finished; this is a positive outcome. The bigger story here is that if we want to see mortgage rates fall, we need more rental units, and right now we have a massive backlog of 2-unit homes under construction — over 900,000. percent (±12.3

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

New-home construction in the U.S. But StorageCafe found that in 2023, most states overlooked one key solution to the affordability crisis: more inventory of “middle housing.” Census Bureau data to analyze housing inventory changes across 489 cities between 2005 and 2023. The report used U.S.

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Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. The housing market shifted in March of this year. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. Yes, crazy to think, but this is a survey trend data line, and the housing market was in free-fall at that time.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Housing construction in the U.S. during the brief COVID-19 recession, to that recovery, and now in the new housing recession, is going to go down in history as one of those crazy data lines we lived through. Just to give you some perspective here, at the peak of 2005, we had about 2.24 When supply is 4.4

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Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

Due to this reality, I have downgraded the housing market from unhealthy housing to a savagely unhealthy housing market. HousingWire: How will rising rates affect new home construction? Housing construction will be impacted if the monthly supply for new homes breaks above 6.5

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. If it wasn’t for solid rental demand boosting multifamily construction this year — 18% year to date —this data line would have looked much worse.

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Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. Since the summer of 2020, I have genuinely believed the housing market could change once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%. In response, they stalled construction for 30 months.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

For this reason, the number of housing units “under construction” is the largest ever recorded in history because they were taking so long to finish. Housing construction productivity has always been terrible compared to other sectors of our economy; I get that, as we still build homes with hammers and nails, not robots.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. This is the highest level housing starts have reached in the past nine months. Construction of single-family homes dropped 2.3% from November to 1.172 million units, the construction of multifamily units again posted a sizable increase of 13.7% Census Bureau.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

The housing market is in a recession, something that the homebuilders and the National Association of Realtors now agree with me on, as this recent CNBC clip shows. family houses in July 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. This is 12.6 percent (±16.9

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Housing Wire

APRIL 18, 2023

Tuesday’s housing starts data does show some promise on the front of attacking inflation and helping lowering mortgage rates, so let’s look at the report and find out what I am talking about. First, however, remember that the housing market is still in a recession, which I wrote about on June 16, 2022. percent (±13.3

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 19, 2022

In June of this year, I raised the fifth recession red flag , putting the housing market in a traditional recession where sales, incomes, jobs, and production would be falling, which is happening now. And unfortunately, one of those productions items is housing completions data — which looks terrible in the latest report.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

As we can see in the chart below, sales levels aren’t exactly booming like they were from 2002-2005. From Census: For sale inventory and months’ supply : The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 436,000. months, the builders will pause construction. When supply is over 6.5 We are at 7.8

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

Just like in the existing home sales market, when sales are low, anything positive on the rate side can move the market in a positive direction. This goes into my low housing bar theme for 2023 and why we need context with sales data. months and below, this is an excellent market for builders. When supply is 4.3

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

million level we saw in 2005. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. months and below, this is an excellent market for the builders. months , this is just an OK market for the builders. months are under construction, 1.86

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2020

higher than the same time last year, according to the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. However, demand has construction playing catch-up , as the estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was just 278,000. Sales are increasingly being driven from homes not yet under construction.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

According to this theory, we have more homes under construction than any time in history. I understand the lure of the housing 2008 story. In their haste, they miss the bigger picture of the housing market. It’s very sexy to talk gloom and doom about the housing market, but sometimes that doesn’t end well.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

Looking at the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo homebuilder confidence data and builder stock prices, I can say the homebuilders got very lucky this time around in the middle of a housing recession. They have less competition as they are working from low sales levels in today’s housing market. months of supply.

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Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A lot of the housing data was lagging the rate move, so it wasn’t apparent that higher rates impacted the data yet. Going back to the summer of 2020, the one factor that I said could change the housing market was the 10-year yield getting above 1.94%. However, the housing market changed once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 11, 2022

The big theme of my housing work since 2010 has been that the housing market would have its weakest recovery from 2008 to 2019 because we simply built too many homes versus the real demand curve, and monthly supply proves that. million total housing starts until 2020-2024, when demand would warrant that many housing starts.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2023

The Census Bureau ‘s housing starts report for December shows that housing completions are still too slow, and we are running out of time this year as housing permits are set to fall until the homebuilders get rid of their excess supply. million until 2020-2024, when demand would finally warrant that type of construction.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. As you can see below, the new home sales market from 2018-2022 doesn’t look like the housing market we had from 2002-2005.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

However, with active listings now near all-time lows, the builders’ new homes still have more value in the housing market than what we saw in previous decades. We didn’t have the credit stress issue from 2010-2023 like we did from 2005 through 2008. months and below, this is an excellent market for builders.

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Housing Wire

JULY 24, 2024

Will the Federal Reserve pivot in time to save construction workers? This is key because, traditionally, residential construction workers are the first to lose their jobs before every recession since higher mortgage rates hit housing first. months , the builders will pause construction. Monthly supply: 9.3

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

From the National Association of Home Builders : For many years I have stressed that the most important housing data I follow is the monthly supply of new homes. It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 406,000. When supply is 4.4

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Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. housing market as savagely unhealthy. million homes, using the NAR data.

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Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2022

Census Bureau released their new residential construction report for April, showing a miss on the estimate and a negative revisions data line, which I believe is lagging behind the current market reality. Housing starts came in at 1.724 million , and housing permits came in at 1.819 million — both are still very healthy numbers.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 6, 2024

The New York City Council this week narrowly passed a housing plan backed by Mayor Eric Adams (D) known as City of Yes, which calls for the construction of 82,000 new homes over the next 15 years in the Big Apple. Housing affordability is an increasing problem in the nations largest city. increase compared to the prior year.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 15, 2024

years in 2005, according to a Redfin analysis of median U.S. housing market for multiple reasons, Redfin said. Some young families are turning to new construction, and others are renting homes.” years last year, up from 6.5 homeowner tenure by year using county records.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

As we can see in the chart below, new home sales aren’t booming like what we saw at the peak of 2005 but are getting back to trend sales growth from the bottom we saw when rates got 5% in 2018. Also, in the chart below, we can all agree it isn’t housing 2005 or housing 2008 with new home sales. When supply is 4.4-6.4

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

You always want to be skeptical of any housing starts data that comes in too strong or too negative from the trend, and we had some specific factors in this report that boosted multifamily construction. Some of the demand that we saw from 2002-2005 was facilitated by credit that no longer exists in the marketplace today.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 29, 2022

The big theme of my housing work since 2010 has been that the housing market would have its weakest recovery from 2008 to 2019 because we simply built too many homes versus the real demand curve, and monthly supply proves that. million total housing starts until 2020-2024, when demand would warrant that many housing starts.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 2, 2022

One top question he addresses is how the industry is reacting to this savagely unhealthy housing market. HW+ Member: What’s the number one question you are getting from the real estate agent community on the economy and housing market? Months are homes under construction 0.8 Then this happened.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2020

Construction continued to play catch-up also as Novembers new-home inventory rose nearly 14% to a 4.1-month month supply – inching ever closer to the six-month supply sweet spot that suggests a balanced market. . The West came in second at a 17.3% decline, while the South and Northeast both fell less than 3%.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

In 2005, when the housing bubble peaked in sales at around 1.4 The housing market has been in a recession since June of this year, and we have other data lines that can be more useful in gauging the new home sales sector. months, and below, this is an excellent market for builders. When supply is 4.3

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