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Housing inventory is down 40%. Buyers are paying the price

Housing Wire

Instead of making up for the shortfall, new listings have slumped further in 2021. Year-over-year, new listing volumes were down 16% in January and 21% in February — amounting to a 125,000 deficit in inventory compared to the same time in 2020. year-over-year in January, the most growth in a single year since 2005.

Inventory 511
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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. This time around, we have not seen the kind of housing credit boom that we did from 2002-2005. New listing data is down 5% year to date, as you can imagine.

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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008. Since most sellers are buyers, inventory should be stable if demand is stable. Demographics also play a role here.

Inventory 518
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Cincinnati’s housing market in a word? Unpredictable

Housing Wire

Ive been doing this since 2005 and I tell clients that Ive never seen a market like this, so we have to navigate it together. A substantial drop in new listings is a contributing factor. 1, weekly new listings were at 410 but have since dropped to 186, although new listings tend to drop in December as the holidays approach.

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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

” One of the housing economic realities that I have been trying to stress this year is that a traditional seller of a home is typically a buyer as well. This explains why total active listing inventory data has been stable over the decades, with the exception of 2006-2011, when those forced distressed credit home sellers couldn’t buy.

Inventory 531
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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

Housing Wire

However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Total Inventory had been growing from 2001-2005; total listings data in 2005 was at the higher historical range of 2.5 million listings. Today, we stand at 1,310,000 active listings. New listings are declining now.

Inventory 397
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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

From NAR : “December was another difficult month for buyers, who continue to face limited inventory and high mortgage rates ,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. During that period, we saw new listing data decline. So the fact that we are back to an average of 26 days on market makes me happier.

Inventory 541