Housing Wire

DECEMBER 7, 2022

As you can see from the chart above, the last several years have not had the FOMO (fear of missing out) housing credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. What I mean by a credit bust is that after the housing bubble burst in 2005 into 2006, we saw a massive increase in supply. Total inventory levels.

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Housing Market Mortgage Marketing Inventory 544

Housing Wire

JUNE 22, 2023

The days on market are back to a teenager level in the existing home sales market, which means I can officially say we are back to a savagely unhealthy housing market! Nothing good happens in the housing market when the days on market are at a teenager level or lower.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Law 526

Housing Wire

MAY 19, 2022

million , with double-digit home-price growth driving a housing market that is still savagely unhealthy. This is something that I said would change the tone of housing, and we are seeing that result this year as sales decline and inventory picks up. We are not taking the unhealthy housing market theme off this marketplace.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Realtors 528

Housing Wire

JANUARY 2, 2024

The “ silver tsunami ” — a colloquialism referring to aging Americans changing their housing arrangements to accommodate aging — could have more of an impact on the housing market this year, according to analyst Meredith Whitney in a conversation with Yahoo Finance. “[T]he And people over 50 are 74% of total U.S. homeowners.

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Housing Market Marketing Real Estate Agent Real Estate 521

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2022

However, the real story of 2022 is that the savagely unhealthy housing market continues as inventory is still lower than last year, sending home prices growth into double digits again. housing market; the 10-year is above 1.94%, something that didn’t happen in 2020 or 2021. From NAR : Total existing-home sales dipped 2.7%

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 505

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2020

housing market and compare those to where we are today — in the middle of one of the most epic years in our country’s history, due to COVID-19. No doubt about it, the COVID crisis has taken some juice out of the 2020 housing market. The February housing data, pre-COVID, was juicy indeed. Context is key!

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Buyers 543

Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2022

We’ve all been wondering what 5% plus mortgage rates would do to the hot housing market, and now we’ve got that and a bag of chips. As a result, I’ve been rooting for mortgage rates to rise to create a balancing impact on this housing market. Have higher rates worked? Some data to consider: 1.

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Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 511

Housing Wire

APRIL 30, 2023

The spring housing market music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. This proves that the mass supply growth we saw from 2005-2007 was due to credit stress, not because the economy was in a recession; the U.S. didn’t go into recession until 2008.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 525

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 16, 2020

According to multiple real estate agents and mortgage brokers, low interest rates and a high percentage of “essential” jobs in their town has kept the housing market and local economy strong. The city’s housing dynamics point to strong buyer demand, which fueled a 16.8% Combined with interest rates that began around 2.5%

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Housing Market Real Estate Agent Marketing Real Estate 448

Housing Wire

MAY 7, 2023

This proves that the mass supply growth we saw from 2005-2007 was due to credit stress, not because the economy was in a recession; the U.S. Even though the labor market is currently showing signs of getting softer , there is no job-loss recession yet. Mortgage rates in a regular market should be 5.25% today but are at 6.5%.

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Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 505

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

Traditionally, housing starts, permits, and completions would move together, like what we saw in 2002-2005. In the chart below you can see more evidence of the housing recession; permits are falling as expected with demand getting weaker. From 2002-2005 it was a steady rise to the top of the housing bubble, and then it burst.

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Supply Chain 448

Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2022

One of the reasons that I moved into the “team higher mortgage rate” camp is that what I saw in January, February, and March of this year was so unhealthy that I labeled the housing market savagely unhealthy. million — once that happens, I can take the unhealthy label off the housing market.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Lending 418

Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

Due to this reality, I have downgraded the housing market from unhealthy housing to a savagely unhealthy housing market. Housing construction will be impacted if the monthly supply for new homes breaks above 6.5 To downgrade it to a savagely unhealthy housing market caught some people by surprise.

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Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Inventory 370

Housing Wire

AUGUST 21, 2020

Let’s just say this is the final nail in the coffin for the housing bear troll camps that were so sure that this time, housing would finally crash. COVID didn’t get the housing market, but it did pull a fast one on those pesky bears. We saw hints of a flourishing housing market prior to the COVID crisis.

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Housing Market Mortgage Buyers Marketing 544

Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. The housing market shifted in March of this year. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. Yes, crazy to think, but this is a survey trend data line, and the housing market was in free-fall at that time.

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 526

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. Understanding this data line and what it is trying to tell you will be more valuable than erroneously thinking the market is crashing and we’ll see a wave of foreclosures.

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New Listings Inventory Housing Market Sellers 508

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2020

housing market has outperformed expectations, I expected these upward trends to moderate. Because housing demand is at pre-cycle highs, we can infer home prices are not an issue for most buyers. This is my biggest concern for the market going forward. Today, the National Association of Realtors reported a 2.5%

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Housing Market Buyers Realtors Marketing 545

Housing Wire

JULY 1, 2021

Although low and stable mortgage rates have kept the housing market booming over recent months, a deterioration in affordability and for-sale inventory has led to a market slowdown.”. For some economists, rising rates are the better option for counterbalancing the market.

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Mortgage Housing Market Realtors Inventory 511

Housing Wire

MAY 8, 2024

You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008. Since most sellers are buyers, inventory should be stable if demand is stable. Demographics also play a role here.

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Inventory Law New Listings Sellers 518

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2020

No, this is not a new home sales housing bubble as we are far from total new home sales being where they were in 2005. However, for the first time in more than a decade we have the demand needed to prompt builders to really push housing starts as the monthly supply data has collapsed this year. It is legit.

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Inventory Buyers Housing Market Mortgage 532

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 21, 2022

Plus, available housing inventory remains near historic lows.” ” One of the housing economic realities that I have been trying to stress this year is that a traditional seller of a home is typically a buyer as well. I have never believed in this concept because of how the housing market credit channels work.

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Inventory New Listings Housing Market Sellers 531

Housing Wire

MARCH 21, 2023

Because housing data and all economics are so violent lately, we created the weekly Housing Market Tracker , which is designed to look forward, not backward. This is the wild housing action I have talked about for some time and why the Housing Market Tracker becomes helpful in understanding this data.

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Mortgage Housing Market Inventory Law 511

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2023

housing market , we just experienced an event that most people never thought could happen. From NAR : “December was another difficult month for buyers, who continue to face limited inventory and high mortgage rates ,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The days on market were too low.

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Inventory Housing Market New Listings Marketing 541

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. This sector on an apples-to-apples basis is more expensive than the existing home sales market. percent (±11.9

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Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 505

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

“In a still-competitive housing market, more well-off home buyers were able to have their bids accepted by offering larger down payments and even by paying cash.” The share of first-time buyers rose to 32%, up from last year’s low of 26%. Typical repeat buyers were 58, down from 59 in 2022.

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Real Estate Agent Real Estate Agents Sellers 435

Housing Wire

APRIL 23, 2021

Low mortgage rates and incredible buyer demand won out over pressure from soaring lumber prices in March as single-family new home sales rose 20.7% million seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. from February to a 1.02 Census Bureau. lower than March 2020.

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Buyers Housing Market Marketing Inventory 505

Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

The housing market is in a recession, something that the homebuilders and the National Association of Realtors now agree with me on, as this recent CNBC clip shows. Over the years, I have tried to emphasize that the housing market in the U.S. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This is 12.6

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Construction Housing Market Sellers Real Estate 370

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

On a positive note, however, the days on the market are no longer a teenager anymore: that metric grew from 18 days to 21 days. I cheer because the savagely unhealthy housing market theme I talked about back in February of this year was the same premise of the housing reset talking point the Federal Reserve uses.

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Inventory Marketing Housing Market New Listings 493

Housing Wire

JUNE 21, 2024

However, what is different this year from 2023 is that we have more sellers that will be buyers. The existing home sales print is catching up to our data, and this, to me, is the best story for housing in 2024 because when the housing market was savagely unhealthy in 2022, the NAR total active listings data was below 1 million.

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Inventory Housing Market New Listings Contracts 482

Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Of course, housing starts today aren’t collapsing in the way they did from the peak of 2005 because we haven’t had a sales credit boom in recent years as we did from 2002-2005, which inflated new home sales toward 1.4 Currently, we are in a much different housing recession than what we had from 2005-2011.

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Mortgage Construction Inventory Buyers 533

Housing Wire

AUGUST 30, 2022

While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels. However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. However, not to the degree we saw from 2005-2008. million listings.

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Inventory New Listings Law Housing Market 397

Housing Wire

JUNE 16, 2022

Housing permits aren’t collapsing by any means, but the permits data is backward-looking. As rates rise, this will impact the builders more as they try to find buyers for current homes in cancellation. From Census: Housing Starts Privately?owned owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,549,000.

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Housing Market Buyers Mortgage Construction 545

Housing Wire

APRIL 1, 2021

“This is confirmation that while purchase demand remains strong, the marginal buyer is feeling the affordability squeeze resulting from the increases in mortgage rates and home prices we’ve experienced in recent months.”. The housing market is in desperate need of more inventory to cool price growth and preserve affordability.

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Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Marketing 448

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

However, with active listings now near all-time lows, the builders’ new homes still have more value in the housing market than what we saw in previous decades. They can cut prices, pay down mortgage rates for their buyers, and do what they need to to make it work for them to move their products.

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 545

Housing Wire

JULY 29, 2021

Though the desire for buyers to purchase a new home remains strong, skyrocketing prices are putting the dream out of reach for some buyers, economists in the housing industry said. May’s 8% increase was the highest jump for that month since 2005, according to NAR. The overall pending home sales index fell 1.9%

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Marketing Buyers Realtors Real Estate 468

Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

“Across the United States, homebuilders reliably broke ground on between 125,000 and 140,000 homes almost every month in 2021, and by one common measure, last year was the second-least volatile year for housing starts since 2005.”. Overall, an estimated 1,595,100 housing units were started in 2021, a 15.6% increase from 2020.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Development 468

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 8, 2022

Since many people think of housing as a wealth creator — and we want more Americans to have more wealth — then the government needs to make sure demand stays high enough for that wealth product to grow. So when you add move-up buyers, move-down buyers, first-time homebuyers, cash buyers and investors together, this can get out of hand.

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Inventory Law Housing Market Design 544