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There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. This means the housing boom period of 2002-2005 had major credit tightening, which won’t happen this time around when the next recession hits. Home prices ebb and flow, pricing was working in the sense that sellers met homebuyers to a degree.
This time around, we have not seen the kind of housing credit boom that we did from 2002-2005. NAR total inventory data 1,250,000 One thing about purchase application data and demand is that a traditional seller is typically a buyer of a home. Newlisting data is down 5% year to date, as you can imagine.
The lack of sellers is also a demand problem and what we saw after June of 2022 is that sellers called it quits earlier and faster in the year than usual, resulting in total existing home sales totaling 5,030,000 to end 2022. During that period, we saw newlisting data decline.
As you can see from the chart above, the last several years have not had the FOMO (fear of missing out) housing credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. These were forced credit sellers, which means these sellers don’t sell to buy a home like a traditional seller does. Total inventory levels. NAR: Total Inventory levels 1.22
However, what is different this year from 2023 is that we have more sellers that will be buyers. As you can see in our newlisting data, we are showing growth. Of course, the housing market didn’t have the credit sales boom it had from 2002-2005, but it lacked inventory.
However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Total Inventory had been growing from 2001-2005; total listings data in 2005 was at the higher historical range of 2.5 million listings. I don’t need to see total active listing get back to the historical range of 2-2.5 From Redfin.
Existing home sales have more legs to go lower, especially now that newlisting data is falling. A traditional primary resident seller is also a buyer, which means if they don’t list, they’re not just taking a potential home to be bought off the table — they’re taking a future sale off the books as well.
The drop in nearly 4,000 closings wasn’t just because buyers weren’t buying; they would, but many couldn’t because sellers weren’t selling. 2023 Sees the Lowest Number of Homes Listed in Twenty-Three Years Listings in 2023 experienced a substantial 15.1% The year-over-year increases spanned from 4.2% A lot to digest.
Among all home types in King, newlistings have fallen 26% in the past month and existing homes for sale at the start of November were down 8.1% The stats are an unwelcome paradox for buyers and sellers alike. Active listings for single-family homes are up 159% in King YoY, up 86% in Seattle and 425% on the Eastside.
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