Remove 2002 Remove New Listings Remove Sellers
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The standoff between homebuyers and sellers

Housing Wire

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. This means the housing boom period of 2002-2005 had major credit tightening, which won’t happen this time around when the next recession hits. Home prices ebb and flow, pricing was working in the sense that sellers met homebuyers to a degree.

Sellers 514
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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

This time around, we have not seen the kind of housing credit boom that we did from 2002-2005. NAR total inventory data 1,250,000 One thing about purchase application data and demand is that a traditional seller is typically a buyer of a home. New listing data is down 5% year to date, as you can imagine.

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Why are home prices at all-time highs with more inventory?

Housing Wire

However, what is different this year from 2023 is that we have more sellers that will be buyers. As you can see in our new listing data, we are showing growth. Of course, the housing market didn’t have the credit sales boom it had from 2002-2005, but it lacked inventory.

Inventory 466
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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

The lack of sellers is also a demand problem and what we saw after June of 2022 is that sellers called it quits earlier and faster in the year than usual, resulting in total existing home sales totaling 5,030,000 to end 2022. During that period, we saw new listing data decline.

Inventory 540
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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

As you can see from the chart above, the last several years have not had the FOMO (fear of missing out) housing credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. These were forced credit sellers, which means these sellers don’t sell to buy a home like a traditional seller does. Total inventory levels. NAR: Total Inventory levels 1.22

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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

Housing Wire

However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Total Inventory had been growing from 2001-2005; total listings data in 2005 was at the higher historical range of 2.5 million listings. I don’t need to see total active listing get back to the historical range of 2-2.5 From Redfin.

Inventory 397
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Existing home sales data shows extent of housing inflation

Housing Wire

Existing home sales have more legs to go lower, especially now that new listing data is falling. A traditional primary resident seller is also a buyer, which means if they don’t list, they’re not just taking a potential home to be bought off the table — they’re taking a future sale off the books as well.

Inventory 479