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Don’t be surprised if a 61-year-old white woman buys your house

Housing Wire

Newly released data from the annual profile of home buyers and sellers by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows just how dramatically this trend has manifested since the financial crisis of 2008. Elevated mortgage rates, sky-high home prices, tight credit and stagnant wages have all contributed to homebuyers getting older.

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The standoff between homebuyers and sellers

Housing Wire

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. When I came up with the “ savagely unhealthy housing market ” label in February of this year, it was based on the premise that the housing inflation story that we have had to deal with since 2020 was a historical event.

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Comparing this housing market recession to 2008

Housing Wire

As we close out 2022, it’s time to reflect on a historic year for the housing market, which was even crazier than the COVID-19 year of 2020. It is crazy to think we are seeing these four things happen in the housing market considering that even in March of this year we were seeing bidding wars accelerate before mortgage rates rose.

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The housing market is now savagely unhealthy

Housing Wire

To get the housing market to be sane and normal again, we need inventory to get back in a range between 1.52 – 1.93 million ; this is still historically low, but this gives the housing market a breather from the madness that we see today. One of the critical data lines that I want to see improve this year is days on market.

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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

Now, with five weeks of data in front of us, we can say they have stabilized the market. As you can see from the chart above, the last several years have not had the FOMO (fear of missing out) housing credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. As we can see below, none of that is happening today because the seller isn’t stressed.

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How home-price growth has damaged the housing market

Housing Wire

This data line lags the current housing market as it’s a few months old. Since 2014, we’ve not seen the credit housing boom that we saw from 2002-2005. The housing market can’t replicate the type of massive credit expansion we saw from 2002-2005, so the price-growth story has more to do with inventory collapsing to all-time lows.

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The 2022 housing market: A tale of two halves

Housing Wire

Marty Green thinks of the housing market in 2022 as two very different movies. But the housing market in the second half of 2022? By September, a full-fledged housing market recession had set in. The 2002 housing market has been a tale of two halves,” said Green. A mortgage rate lockdown freezes the housing market.