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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

Now, with five weeks of data in front of us, we can say they have stabilized the market. As you can see from the chart above, the last several years have not had the FOMO (fear of missing out) housing credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data?

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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

housing market , we just experienced an event that most people never thought could happen. During that period, we saw new listing data decline. However, in 2020 new listing data came back, and we don’t want to see the new listings continue to decline this year — that would be a double negative for the housing market.

Inventory 541
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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. Understanding this data line and what it is trying to tell you will be more valuable than erroneously thinking the market is crashing and we’ll see a wave of foreclosures.

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Why are home prices at all-time highs with more inventory?

Housing Wire

Let’s keep it simple: total active listings are still below 2019 levels nationally, and the days on market are under 30 days today. As you can see in our new listing data, we are showing growth. Of course, the housing market didn’t have the credit sales boom it had from 2002-2005, but it lacked inventory.

Inventory 482
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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

Housing Wire

While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels. From the index : I know it seems strange, but existing home sales are falling, and the monthly supply of new homes is at 10.9 million listings.

Inventory 397
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Existing home sales data shows extent of housing inflation

Housing Wire

The savagely unhealthy housing market theme of mine is running in full force now as we have gotten no relief on home prices and now have a mega jump in mortgage rates. . Since the summer of 2020, I have talked about what could change the housing market, which was a 10-year yield above 1.94%, which means rates over 4%.

Inventory 482
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The standoff between homebuyers and sellers

Housing Wire

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. When I came up with the “ savagely unhealthy housing market ” label in February of this year, it was based on the premise that the housing inflation story that we have had to deal with since 2020 was a historical event.

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