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My concern now is that some sellers are feeling stressed about this market, which should never happen because this is the best seller market ever. However, a seller is also a natural homebuyer, unless they’re an investor. You can see why some sellers are stressed now. People who sell need to live somewhere.
Since 2014, we’ve not seen the credit housing boom that we saw from 2002-2005. The housing market can’t replicate the type of massive credit expansion we saw from 2002-2005, so the price-growth story has more to do with inventory collapsing to all-time lows. Also, certain investors felt no fear post-2020.
That’s not the case now because we have’t had a credit boom post-2010 as we did from 2002 to 2005. The Baby Boomers are not selling their homes en masse, and we have more investors providing shelter for renters than before. If you connect the lines, you can see where we are on a historical basis. What is going on here?
I know some people don’t agree with me on this, but the price gains in both the existing home and new home sales sector show that homebuilders and sellers had too much pricing power and needed to be checked. As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. The only way this happens is by higher rates.
The lack of sellers is also a demand problem and what we saw after June of 2022 is that sellers called it quits earlier and faster in the year than usual, resulting in total existing home sales totaling 5,030,000 to end 2022. I have often said that anytime days on the market are at a teenager level, nothing good will happen.
Compared to the existing home sales marketplace, it doesn’t have a high cash buyer or investor buyer profile. As you can see below, the new home sales market from 2018-2022 doesn’t look like the housing market we had from 2002-2005. Like home sellers, they try to make as much money as possible. percent (±11.9 percent (±13.7
Then everyone went crazy on investors and iBuyers , suggesting that these people were holding up the entire housing market. I understand that grifters have to keep the grift going, but not even the Joker would say that the housing market lives off investors and not mortgage buyers.
A traditional primary resident seller is also a buyer, which means if they don’t list, they’re not just taking a potential home to be bought off the table — they’re taking a future sale off the books as well. However, it’s not the market of 2002-2011. From NAR Research : “Total existing-home sales notched a minor contraction of 0.4%
What I believe occurred is that some housing investors took the decline in builders confidence and the increase in monthly supply to push that something bad was going to occur quickly. percent)* below the December 2020 estimate of 943,000 Slow and steady wins the race and the market that we had from 2002-2005 doesn’t exist today.
However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. One of the issues with existing home inventory has been that, for the most part, a traditional seller is usually a buyer of a home. I am not talking about investors; I am talking about primary resident homeowners. million listings.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage broke 7% for the first time since April 2002, leading to greater stagnation in the housing market,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement. A year ago at this time, rates averaged 3.14%. The 10-year note went to 4.04% from 4.14% in the same period.
Historically low interest rates brought buyers and investors out of the woodwork for any homes for sale. The stats are an unwelcome paradox for buyers and sellers alike. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage recently broke the 7% level for the first time since April 2002, leading to greater stagnation in the housing market.
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