Housing Wire

MARCH 18, 2022

To get the housing market to be sane and normal again, we need inventory to get back in a range between 1.52 – 1.93 million ; this is still historically low, but this gives the housing market a breather from the madness that we see today. Housing is the cost of shelter to own the debt; it’s not an investment.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 5, 2022

I have been part of the mortgage banking industry since 1983 — 39 years to date through different housing markets. In many ways it was similar to today, with one exception: When I started, I hadn’t been spoiled by a housing market like the one in 2020 and 2021. economy, especially the mortgage and housing sector.

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Housing Wire

MAY 19, 2022

million , with double-digit home-price growth driving a housing market that is still savagely unhealthy. This is something that I said would change the tone of housing, and we are seeing that result this year as sales decline and inventory picks up. We are not taking the unhealthy housing market theme off this marketplace.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2022

We’ve all been wondering what 5% plus mortgage rates would do to the hot housing market, and now we’ve got that and a bag of chips. As a result, I’ve been rooting for mortgage rates to rise to create a balancing impact on this housing market. Have higher rates worked? Some data to consider: 1.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2022

However, the real story of 2022 is that the savagely unhealthy housing market continues as inventory is still lower than last year, sending home prices growth into double digits again. housing market; the 10-year is above 1.94%, something that didn’t happen in 2020 or 2021. million in March.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2022

One of the reasons that I moved into the “team higher mortgage rate” camp is that what I saw in January, February, and March of this year was so unhealthy that I labeled the housing market savagely unhealthy. million — once that happens, I can take the unhealthy label off the housing market.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 31, 2022

That’s not to say that the data points the Fed used are incorrect — in fact, we are in a savagely unhealthy housing market , but it’s not a bubble. First, because there is no speculative debt demand going on today, there can’t be a housing bubble. housing market behavior for the first time since the boom of the early 2000s.

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Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. The housing market shifted in March of this year. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. Yes, crazy to think, but this is a survey trend data line, and the housing market was in free-fall at that time.

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Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. Since the summer of 2020, I have genuinely believed the housing market could change once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%. . “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

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Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A lot of the housing data was lagging the rate move, so it wasn’t apparent that higher rates impacted the data yet. Going back to the summer of 2020, the one factor that I said could change the housing market was the 10-year yield getting above 1.94%. However, the housing market changed once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%.

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Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. housing market as savagely unhealthy. million homes, using the NAR data.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 2, 2022

One top question he addresses is how the industry is reacting to this savagely unhealthy housing market. HW+ Member: What’s the number one question you are getting from the real estate agent community on the economy and housing market? This Q&A was originally hosted on June 1st.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

“This is about the same rate of price growth that occurred during the 2002 through 2006 period when subprime lending drove exuberant housing demand. “But that is where the similarities end.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2020

housing market has outperformed expectations, I expected these upward trends to moderate. The silver lining is that unlike in the previous cycle from 2002-2005, homeowners are in a much better financial position. In recent articles, I have written that although current sales data for the U.S. If we have greater than 4.6%

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Housing Wire

MAY 9, 2022

housing market follow Canada? In short, the answer is no, we won’t have the type of home-price velocity that Canada has experienced because our housing market is more diverse than theirs. housing market is more tied to mortgage buyers. from 2002-to 2005, which led to forced credit selling.

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Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2022

family housing starts in April were at a rate of 1,100,000; this is 7.3 As you can see below, the housing demand data from 2002 to 2005 was never apparent in any housing data lines from 2018 to 2022. When you don’t have a credit boom with exotic loan debt products, housing demand has limits. percent (±7.7

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

As we can see in the chart below, sales levels aren’t exactly booming like they were from 2002-2005. From Census: For sale inventory and months’ supply : The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 436,000. The existing home market is only sitting at 3.3

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the savagely unhealthy housing market. Now that mortgage rates have spiked up so much, the housing construction growth we have seen in single-family construction is done. During the housing bubble years, sales, starts, permits and completions data all moved together in a boom and then a bust.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

However, with active listings now near all-time lows, the builders’ new homes still have more value in the housing market than what we saw in previous decades. However, imagine if the housing market could get mortgage rates below 5.75%, then head toward 5% and stay there for some time.

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 11, 2022

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. When I came up with the “ savagely unhealthy housing market ” label in February of this year, it was based on the premise that the housing inflation story that we have had to deal with since 2020 was a historical event.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

As you can see below, the market we’ve had from 2018-2022 looks nothing like the overheating demand we saw from 2002 to 2005. I have always stressed this because many extreme housing bears in America are just side-hustling professional grifters. It hasn’t for a reason; that was always a marketing pitch.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 16, 2022

family housing completions in May were at a rate of 1,043,000; this is 2.8 Housing completions have been one of the worst stories for the housing market. The ability to finish houses has taken forever; thus, now the completion data is picking up to say hello to the falling housing starts. percent (±13.6

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2021

Knowing that the housing crash addicts on YouTube , Twitter , Facebook , and Clubhouse would incorrectly push the negative year-over-year data spin, I wanted to get ahead of that narrative. Then everyone went crazy on investors and iBuyers , suggesting that these people were holding up the entire housing market.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Of course, housing starts today aren’t collapsing in the way they did from the peak of 2005 because we haven’t had a sales credit boom in recent years as we did from 2002-2005, which inflated new home sales toward 1.4 Currently, we are in a much different housing recession than what we had from 2005-2011.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2022

The savagely unhealthy housing market theme of mine is running in full force now as we have gotten no relief on home prices and now have a mega jump in mortgage rates. . Since the summer of 2020, I have talked about what could change the housing market, which was a 10-year yield above 1.94%, which means rates over 4%.

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Appraisal Buzz

MAY 17, 2021

Between 2002-2005 in many markets, the real estate market was scorching, much like it is today. As appraisers, we faced tremendous pressure from buyers, sellers, real estate agents, and loan officers during the previous run-up. Some appraisers are reticent to address increasing trends now.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 17, 2022

We had more housing starts during the bubble years because from 2002 to 2005 that demand curve was higher, but it was facilitated by unhealthy credit growth. The homebuyers of new homes today are very solid, but since we don’t have a credit boom in housing, housing starts will move up slowly.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

The housing market is in a recession, something that the homebuilders and the National Association of Realtors now agree with me on, as this recent CNBC clip shows. Over the years, I have tried to emphasize that the housing market in the U.S. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This is 12.6

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 30, 2022

While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels. However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Case in point, purchase application data is already below 2008 levels today.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

For example, the Census report included a special notice that the large increase (119%) in privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Northeast from November to December was influenced by real estate tax changes in Philadephia during that time.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 3, 2022

We haven’t had the FOMO housing market of 2002-2005 again; I believe that adorable marketing line isn’t warranted. New home sales are getting weaker; the final print is back to 1996 levels. However, starts and permits are holding up. Once they start to fade, I can raise this red flag.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

The one thing housing has going for it now is that we don’t have the speculative booming demand as we saw from 2002 to 2005. From Census: The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2022 was $436,700. The average sales price was $523,900.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 26, 2022

In reality, as we talked about many times on HousingWire, housing data was going to moderate, find a base and work from that COVID-19 surge in the data. However, with that said, it’s still just an OK housing market for me based on how I view the new home sales market. This is 11.9 percent (±20.3 percent (±16.6

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Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

From NAHB : I recently raised my fifth recession red flag because of this drop in their confidence, sales, and housing permits and this report doesn’t change that. Again, this cycle is much different than the run-up in 2002-2005; hopefully, you can see that with the data I have provided.

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 18, 2022

in September 2002. That said, it’s still a far cry from 1980, when inflation spiked to a staggering 14%. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index : This measures how optimistic U.S. consumers are about the economy and their finances. The index stood at 58.6

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Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

Up for the challenge, I created the phrase the forbearance crash bros , knowing that the housing crash addicts in America lack a financial credit profile risk analysis background. housing market like these bearish Americans and foreign citizens were screaming about in 2020 and 2021. Going back to point No.

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BiggerPockets

APRIL 11, 2022

When I started my real estate investing journey in 2002, I didn’t have any training or a real estate license; like lots of folks starting out, I learned a lot […].

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