Housing Wire

JULY 19, 2022

The June housing starts data beat estimates with positive revisions, however, this doesn’t change the housing market recession call that I made last month. The smart thing to do is go with the builder sentiment trend until it reverses, and most likely, we will need to see lower mortgage rates for that to happen.

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Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2023

Just when I thought days on market were returning to normal, that number for existing homes fell back down to 22 days. If the days on the market are at a teenager level or even lower, it’s never a good sign for the housing market. housing market inventory channels have changed due to how the U.S.

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Housing Wire

MAY 19, 2022

million , with double-digit home-price growth driving a housing market that is still savagely unhealthy. However, this year has seen one big game-changer: the 10-year yield finally cracked over 1.94%, which drove mortgage rates over 4%. We are not taking the unhealthy housing market theme off this marketplace.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 27, 2022

Marty Green thinks of the housing market in 2022 as two very different movies. The first half of the year, with mortgage rates in the 3s and 4s, was like “Fast and Furious.” ” Houses were selling at a fever pitch in a matter of days, with multiple offers, waived contingencies and buyers paying $100,000(!)

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2020

housing market and compare those to where we are today — in the middle of one of the most epic years in our country’s history, due to COVID-19. No doubt about it, the COVID crisis has taken some juice out of the 2020 housing market. The February housing data, pre-COVID, was juicy indeed. higher than a year ago.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2021

A bullish housing market. economic recovery was a false story and that we were about to embark on a second housing bubble crash due to forbearance. The housing market didn’t crash at all, in fact, more Americans bought homes with mortgages in 2021 than in 2020. What a year 2021 has been. The excellent.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2022

However, the real story of 2022 is that the savagely unhealthy housing market continues as inventory is still lower than last year, sending home prices growth into double digits again. housing market; the 10-year is above 1.94%, something that didn’t happen in 2020 or 2021. million to 4.98 million in January 2019.

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Housing Wire

JUNE 28, 2022

This data line lags the current housing market as it’s a few months old. Imagine if mortgage rates didn’t rise this year. We are still showing double-digit home-price growth trends in the recent data as it takes time for higher mortgage rates to really increase supply back to normal levels. million or higher.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

The bigger story here is that if we want to see mortgage rates fall, we need more rental units, and right now we have a massive backlog of 2-unit homes under construction — over 900,000. Traditionally, housing starts, permits, and completions would move together, like what we saw in 2002-2005.

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Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2022

One of the reasons that I moved into the “team higher mortgage rate” camp is that what I saw in January, February, and March of this year was so unhealthy that I labeled the housing market savagely unhealthy. However, a cool-down in prices is not the same thing as a housing crash. We had a credit boom.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 31, 2022

That’s not to say that the data points the Fed used are incorrect — in fact, we are in a savagely unhealthy housing market , but it’s not a bubble. First, because there is no speculative debt demand going on today, there can’t be a housing bubble. housing market behavior for the first time since the boom of the early 2000s.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 19, 2021

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined slightly to 2.86% for the week ending in August 19, according to mortgage rates data released Thursday by Freddie Mac ‘s PMMS. The week prior, mortgage rates rose to 2.87% , after six consecutive weeks of mortgage rate declines. Last week, mortgage applications decreased 3.9%

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 21, 2020

Let’s just say this is the final nail in the coffin for the housing bear troll camps that were so sure that this time, housing would finally crash. COVID didn’t get the housing market, but it did pull a fast one on those pesky bears. We saw hints of a flourishing housing market prior to the COVID crisis.

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Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. Currently, we are in a much different housing recession than what we had from 2005-2011. The credit cycle looks much different now than the build-up from 2002-2005.

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Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2022

Housing starts came in at 1.724 million , and housing permits came in at 1.819 million — both are still very healthy numbers. However, the sting of higher mortgage rates is hitting the single-family construction data, and the real story is that the housing completion data, which has been bad for a long time, is still terrible.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 30, 2023

With the banking crisis spurring more talk of a recession, the question now is: What would housing credit look like in a recession? housing market would crash during the pandemic. One of the main reasons for that fear was that housing credit was about to get tight, meaning fewer people could buy homes with mortgages.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. This sector on an apples-to-apples basis is more expensive than the existing home sales market. percent (±11.9

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Housing Wire

MARCH 15, 2021

I hear a lot of chatter about a boom in cash-out refinances, and the presumption seems to be that this is destined to wreak havoc on the housing market and the economy at some point. Home prices were growing at an unsustainable level from 2002-2005, leading to some excess risk-taking on inadequate loan debt structures.

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Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. The housing market shifted in March of this year. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. Yes, crazy to think, but this is a survey trend data line, and the housing market was in free-fall at that time.

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Housing Wire

JULY 6, 2022

As recession talk becomes more prevalent, some people are concerned that mortgage credit lending will get much tighter. When people say credit will get so tight that we are headed back to 2008 levels of lending, they’re telling me they’ve never read the MBA’s mortgage credit availability index, not even one time.

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Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 2, 2022

Borrowers’ demand for mortgage loans declined at a slower pace last week when mortgage rates dropped slightly ahead of the Federal Reserve ’s (Fed) meeting to announce the new target for the federal funds rate. A different index measures this week’s rates higher at 7.09% , according to Mortgage News Daily. from 13.9%

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2020

housing market has outperformed expectations, I expected these upward trends to moderate. If we don’t end the year at 5,710,000 – 5,840,000 total existing home sales, it will be because COVID-19 temporarily paused housing activity. history all can facilitate unhealthy price growth if mortgage rates stay this low.

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Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2023

housing market , we just experienced an event that most people never thought could happen. From NAR : “December was another difficult month for buyers, who continue to face limited inventory and high mortgage rates ,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The days on market were too low.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 26, 2021

HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami joins the HousingWire Daily podcast to talk about why low mortgage rates need to end. During the interview, HW+ Managing Editor Brena Nath interviews Mohtashami on his most recent article , “We need higher mortgage rates to cool the housing market.”. Already a member?

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Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

However, since I had the possibility of the 10-year yield getting to 2.42% and 4% plus mortgage rates, I accounted for that in the range. Due to this reality, I have downgraded the housing market from unhealthy housing to a savagely unhealthy housing market. The days on the market to sell a home is too low.

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Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. housing market as savagely unhealthy. million homes, using the NAR data.

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Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

“This is about the same rate of price growth that occurred during the 2002 through 2006 period when subprime lending drove exuberant housing demand. “But that is where the similarities end. Mortgage holders are well-qualified and subprime loans are rare. ”

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Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. Since the summer of 2020, I have genuinely believed the housing market could change once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%. It is what it is: the housing dilemma we live with in America.

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Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 14, 2023

Benchmark Administration (IBA) , will take on a new role as president of ICE Mortgage Technology starting on March 1. Bowler will be in charge of ICE’s business segment, which is focused on automating elements of the mortgage industry and delivered a revenue of $1.1 Timothy Bowler, president of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 11, 2022

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. When I came up with the “ savagely unhealthy housing market ” label in February of this year, it was based on the premise that the housing inflation story that we have had to deal with since 2020 was a historical event.

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Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A few months ago, I wrote that the new home sales sector is at risk because of rising mortgage rates. A lot of the housing data was lagging the rate move, so it wasn’t apparent that higher rates impacted the data yet. As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. Slow and steady wins the race.

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Housing Wire

DECEMBER 8, 2021

My biggest concern for housing in the years 2020-2024 was that if the demographic push in demand picks up and total home sales get over 6. 2 million , we could be at risk of housing inventory falling to such low levels that I would have to categorize this housing market as unhealthy. 2020 and 2021 easily each have over 6.2

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Housing Wire

OCTOBER 12, 2020

Despite what they promised, we sit here today with the United States housing market outperforming all other economic sectors in the world during the pandemic. In order for the housing market to crash due to too many loans going into default when forbearance programs end, the number of loans in these programs needs to grow.

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Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

However, with active listings now near all-time lows, the builders’ new homes still have more value in the housing market than what we saw in previous decades. They can cut prices, pay down mortgage rates for their buyers, and do what they need to to make it work for them to move their products. months of supply equals: 1.4

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 521

Housing Wire

JUNE 21, 2024

Existing home sales When mortgage rates started to rise earlier this year, existing home sales trended lower. However, if mortgage rates went lower and stayed lower, everyone would be selling more homes today. Of course, the housing market didn’t have the credit sales boom it had from 2002-2005, but it lacked inventory.

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Inventory Housing Market New Listings Contracts 419

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 27, 2022

Mortgage rates have surged firmly above the 7% mark, making alternatives such as temporary rate buydowns and down payment assistance programs more popular, according to loan officers. United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM) launched the product in August. A year ago at this time, rates averaged 3.14%. Searching for new options.

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Mortgage Loan Officers Clients Housing Market 339

Housing Wire

JUNE 16, 2022

Housing starts came in at 1.549 million and housing permits came in at 1.695 million. Housing completion data did grow to 1.465 million and more of the backlogged homes are finished. family housing starts in May were at a rate of 1,051,000; this is 9.2 percent (±11.0 percent)* below the revised April figure of 1,157,000.

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