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Homebuilders are done until mortgage rates fall

Housing Wire

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. If it wasn’t for solid rental demand boosting multifamily construction this year — 18% year to date —this data line would have looked much worse.

Mortgage 533
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How will rising rates affect new home construction?

Housing Wire

Census Bureau released their construction report for February, showing a positive trend in housing construction data with a lovely print in housing permits at 1,859,000 and housing starts at 1,769,000. So far, housing construction has done well during 2020-2022 considering the economic drama. Today, the U.S.

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Housing starts data lags reality of higher mortgage rates

Housing Wire

Census Bureau released their new residential construction report for April, showing a miss on the estimate and a negative revisions data line, which I believe is lagging behind the current market reality. We simply cannot finish homes in America promptly, and now that mortgage rates are over 5%, some buyers won’t be able to purchase a home.

Mortgage 455
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Here’s why the housing market needs higher mortgage rates

Housing Wire

However, the demand curve of what we have in housing too doesn’t resemble the speculation demand curve of what we saw from 2002-to 2005. Even today, we aren’t even at 2002 levels in the MBA index. This is a risk to housing construction because 5% mortgage rates paused construction for 30 months back then.

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The housing market recession continues, despite starts data

Housing Wire

The smart thing to do is go with the builder sentiment trend until it reverses, and most likely, we will need to see lower mortgage rates for that to happen. From the National Association of Home Builders : Looking at the housing starts report, the numbers came in slightly better than anticipated, driven by multifamily construction.

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New home sales make it clear: Housing is in a recession

Housing Wire

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. We talked about this in March , and even last year, when I wrote about the problem with the housing construction boom premise. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

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Purchase apps are at 2009 level: where’s the inventory?

Housing Wire

As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. That’s not the case now because we have’t had a credit boom post-2010 as we did from 2002 to 2005. We have more housing starts under construction now than in recent history! What is going on here?

Inventory 485