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New home sales make it clear: Housing is in a recession

Housing Wire

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. We talked about this in March , and even last year, when I wrote about the problem with the housing construction boom premise. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

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Builders only have 76,000 completed new homes for sale

Housing Wire

Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. As we can see in the chart below, sales levels aren’t exactly booming like they were from 2002-2005. months, the builders will pause construction. months, and we had a big miss on housing starts last week , mostly coming from multifamily construction.

Inventory 524
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New home sales report boosted by positive revisions

Housing Wire

It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. The builders will pull back on construction growth if new homes sales start to head lower. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. From Census: The seasonally?adjusted

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Wow — 6 million existing home sales! However, context is key with 2020 housing market data

Housing Wire

I have said for many years that we wouldn’t see total housing construction start a year at 1.5 million until the years 2020-2024 because we would need to start the year with over 737,000 new home sales in order for developers to see the need for that amount of building. The median sales price is now 11.4% higher than a year ago.

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Are new home sales flagging a recession?

Housing Wire

Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. This housing cycle is and will always be based on real demand, versus the credit boom we saw from 2002 to 2005. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction.

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Low housing inventory a win for homebuilders

Housing Wire

As I have stressed time after time, we shouldn’t be using the housing economic models of 2002-2008 — that would have led everyone to believe we had a mass supply of housing coming online in 2022. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5

Inventory 545
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New home sales beats estimates, but what does it mean?

Housing Wire

Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Five months of the supply are homes in construction. That is a high level, and two months of the supply hasn’t started construction yet, and a whopping 0.68 The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 This is 10.7 percent (±18.9

Inventory 488