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Homebuilders are done until mortgage rates fall

Housing Wire

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. The credit cycle looks much different now than the build-up from 2002-2005. In the past, builders benefitted when mortgage rates fell toward 4% and below.

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Housing starts data lags reality of higher mortgage rates

Housing Wire

However, the sting of higher mortgage rates is hitting the single-family construction data, and the real story is that the housing completion data, which has been bad for a long time, is still terrible. We simply cannot finish homes in America promptly, and now that mortgage rates are over 5%, some buyers won’t be able to purchase a home.

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Are existing home sales showing a housing bubble?

Housing Wire

That belief, however, assumes that one does not understand the two main drivers of housing: demographics and mortgage rates. As it happens, these fabulous demographics are accompanied by the lowest mortgage rates ever recorded in history. All that other stuff, my friends, is just stamp collecting.

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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

Since the weaker CPI data was released in November, bond yields and mortgage rates have been heading lower. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data? However, mortgage rates have fallen more than 1% since the recent highs, so it’s time to look at the data to explain how to interpret it.

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Existing home sales are still too hot

Housing Wire

We see hints of this delayed home sales shift in the Mortgage Bankers Association’s purchase application data. Because housing demand is at pre-cycle highs, we can infer home prices are not an issue for most buyers. nominal home price growth every year for the next several years, affordability will be an issue for some buyers.

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New home sales are at risk with rising mortgage rates ?

Housing Wire

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. million line in the sand has been this: Home prices grow above that 23% level: check Mortgage rates spike higher: check.

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What 5% mortgage rates mean for the housing market?

Housing Wire

We’ve all been wondering what 5% plus mortgage rates would do to the hot housing market, and now we’ve got that and a bag of chips. As a result, I’ve been rooting for mortgage rates to rise to create a balancing impact on this housing market. 2018 was the last time mortgage rates got to 5%, and sales trended from 5.72