Remove 2002 Remove Buyers Remove Investors
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How home-price growth has damaged the housing market

Housing Wire

Since 2014, we’ve not seen the credit housing boom that we saw from 2002-2005. The housing market can’t replicate the type of massive credit expansion we saw from 2002-2005, so the price-growth story has more to do with inventory collapsing to all-time lows. Also, certain investors felt no fear post-2020.

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The housing market is now savagely unhealthy

Housing Wire

However, a seller is also a natural homebuyer, unless they’re an investor. As you can see from this NAR report, cash buyers as a percent of sales is slightly lower now than levels in 2016. However, distressed sales are down a lot today compared to back then, and sales to investors are 19% today compared to 16% back then.

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Purchase apps are at 2009 level: where’s the inventory?

Housing Wire

That’s not the case now because we have’t had a credit boom post-2010 as we did from 2002 to 2005. The Baby Boomers are not selling their homes en masse, and we have more investors providing shelter for renters than before. If you connect the lines, you can see where we are on a historical basis. What is going on here?

Inventory 526
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The housing market recession continues, despite starts data

Housing Wire

real estate investors and affordable homes. Some buyers had to wait forever before they could lock in their rate, meaning they didn’t qualify for their homes as rates moved up so fast. We never saw the credit sales boom as we did from 2002-2005, so the builders themselves are in a better position to manage their future.

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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

From NAR : “December was another difficult month for buyers, who continue to face limited inventory and high mortgage rates ,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. This means we don’t have enough housing inventory available because with lending standards back to normal we can’t replicate the credit demand we saw in housing from 2002-2005.

Inventory 541
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Existing home sales data continues to outperform

Housing Wire

Then everyone went crazy on investors and iBuyers , suggesting that these people were holding up the entire housing market. I understand that grifters have to keep the grift going, but not even the Joker would say that the housing market lives off investors and not mortgage buyers.

Inventory 516
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Is the savagely unhealthy housing market back?

Housing Wire

We don’t have a massive credit boom as purchase application data is at historical lows; we haven’t had the same run-up in credit as we saw from 2002-2005. This is why I always draw the black line on the chart below — to show people that we haven’t had a credit boom for many years.