Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2023

Just when I thought days on market were returning to normal, that number for existing homes fell back down to 22 days. If the days on the market are at a teenager level or even lower, it’s never a good sign for the housing market. housing market inventory channels have changed due to how the U.S.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 539

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 5, 2022

I have been part of the mortgage banking industry since 1983 — 39 years to date through different housing markets. In many ways it was similar to today, with one exception: When I started, I hadn’t been spoiled by a housing market like the one in 2020 and 2021. economy, especially the mortgage and housing sector.

Housing Market 523

Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Mortgage 523

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 7, 2022

As you can see from the chart above, the last several years have not had the FOMO (fear of missing out) housing credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. What I mean by a credit bust is that after the housing bubble burst in 2005 into 2006, we saw a massive increase in supply. Total inventory levels. NAR: Total Inventory levels 1.22

Housing Market 544

Housing Market Mortgage Marketing Inventory 544

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2020

housing market and compare those to where we are today — in the middle of one of the most epic years in our country’s history, due to COVID-19. No doubt about it, the COVID crisis has taken some juice out of the 2020 housing market. The February housing data, pre-COVID, was juicy indeed. Context is key!

Housing Market 543

Housing Market Marketing Construction Buyers 543

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2022

However, the real story of 2022 is that the savagely unhealthy housing market continues as inventory is still lower than last year, sending home prices growth into double digits again. housing market; the 10-year is above 1.94%, something that didn’t happen in 2020 or 2021. From NAR : Total existing-home sales dipped 2.7%

Housing Market 505

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 505

Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2022

We’ve all been wondering what 5% plus mortgage rates would do to the hot housing market, and now we’ve got that and a bag of chips. As a result, I’ve been rooting for mortgage rates to rise to create a balancing impact on this housing market. Have higher rates worked? Some data to consider: 1.

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Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 511

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

Traditionally, housing starts, permits, and completions would move together, like what we saw in 2002-2005. In the chart below you can see more evidence of the housing recession; permits are falling as expected with demand getting weaker. From 2002-2005 it was a steady rise to the top of the housing bubble, and then it burst.

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Housing Market Marketing Construction Supply Chain 448

Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2022

One of the reasons that I moved into the “team higher mortgage rate” camp is that what I saw in January, February, and March of this year was so unhealthy that I labeled the housing market savagely unhealthy. million — once that happens, I can take the unhealthy label off the housing market.

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Housing Market Marketing Inventory Lending 418

Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

Due to this reality, I have downgraded the housing market from unhealthy housing to a savagely unhealthy housing market. Housing construction will be impacted if the monthly supply for new homes breaks above 6.5 To downgrade it to a savagely unhealthy housing market caught some people by surprise.

Housing Market 370

Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Inventory 370

Housing Wire

AUGUST 21, 2020

Let’s just say this is the final nail in the coffin for the housing bear troll camps that were so sure that this time, housing would finally crash. COVID didn’t get the housing market, but it did pull a fast one on those pesky bears. We saw hints of a flourishing housing market prior to the COVID crisis.

Housing Market 544

Housing Market Mortgage Buyers Marketing 544

Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. The housing market shifted in March of this year. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. Yes, crazy to think, but this is a survey trend data line, and the housing market was in free-fall at that time.

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 526

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2020

housing market has outperformed expectations, I expected these upward trends to moderate. Because housing demand is at pre-cycle highs, we can infer home prices are not an issue for most buyers. This is my biggest concern for the market going forward. Today, the National Association of Realtors reported a 2.5%

Housing Market 545

Housing Market Buyers Realtors Marketing 545

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

. “This is about the same rate of price growth that occurred during the 2002 through 2006 period when subprime lending drove exuberant housing demand. “But that is where the similarities end.

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Inventory Housing Market Lending Buyers 482

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2023

housing market , we just experienced an event that most people never thought could happen. From NAR : “December was another difficult month for buyers, who continue to face limited inventory and high mortgage rates ,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The days on market were too low.

Inventory 541

Inventory Housing Market New Listings Marketing 541

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. This sector on an apples-to-apples basis is more expensive than the existing home sales market. percent (±11.9

Mortgage 505

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 505

Housing Wire

JUNE 21, 2024

However, what is different this year from 2023 is that we have more sellers that will be buyers. The existing home sales print is catching up to our data, and this, to me, is the best story for housing in 2024 because when the housing market was savagely unhealthy in 2022, the NAR total active listings data was below 1 million.

Inventory 482

Inventory Housing Market New Listings Contracts 482

Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2022

However, the sting of higher mortgage rates is hitting the single-family construction data, and the real story is that the housing completion data, which has been bad for a long time, is still terrible. We simply cannot finish homes in America promptly, and now that mortgage rates are over 5%, some buyers won’t be able to purchase a home.

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Mortgage Construction Contracts Housing Market 493

Housing Wire

JUNE 16, 2022

Housing permits aren’t collapsing by any means, but the permits data is backward-looking. As rates rise, this will impact the builders more as they try to find buyers for current homes in cancellation. From Census: Housing Starts Privately?owned owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,549,000.

Housing Market 545

Housing Market Buyers Mortgage Construction 545

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

However, with active listings now near all-time lows, the builders’ new homes still have more value in the housing market than what we saw in previous decades. They can cut prices, pay down mortgage rates for their buyers, and do what they need to to make it work for them to move their products.

Inventory 545

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 545

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2021

Then everyone went crazy on investors and iBuyers , suggesting that these people were holding up the entire housing market. I understand that grifters have to keep the grift going, but not even the Joker would say that the housing market lives off investors and not mortgage buyers.

Inventory 516

Inventory Housing Market Investors Marketing 516

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 11, 2022

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. When I came up with the “ savagely unhealthy housing market ” label in February of this year, it was based on the premise that the housing inflation story that we have had to deal with since 2020 was a historical event.

Sellers 514

Sellers Inventory Housing Market New Listings 514

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2022

The savagely unhealthy housing market theme of mine is running in full force now as we have gotten no relief on home prices and now have a mega jump in mortgage rates. . Since the summer of 2020, I have talked about what could change the housing market, which was a 10-year yield above 1.94%, which means rates over 4%.

Inventory 482

Inventory Housing Market New Listings Mortgage 482

Housing Wire

MARCH 17, 2022

We had more housing starts during the bubble years because from 2002 to 2005 that demand curve was higher, but it was facilitated by unhealthy credit growth. The homebuyers of new homes today are very solid, but since we don’t have a credit boom in housing, housing starts will move up slowly.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Buyers 488

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

However, the housing market did run into one problem in 2020. Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model. I knew housing would be OK as long as home prices only grew at 23% over five years — 4.6% This means less demand for housing.

New Listings 508

New Listings Inventory Housing Market Sellers 508

Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Of course, housing starts today aren’t collapsing in the way they did from the peak of 2005 because we haven’t had a sales credit boom in recent years as we did from 2002-2005, which inflated new home sales toward 1.4 Currently, we are in a much different housing recession than what we had from 2005-2011.

Mortgage 533

Mortgage Construction Inventory Buyers 533

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

Housing data should cool off, and we are getting into the period where some forward-looking data reflects that. The new home sales market doesn’t have a 28% cash-buyer profile as we saw in the last existing home sales report. From Census: The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2022 was $436,700.

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Construction Buyers Housing Market Inventory 370

Housing Wire

APRIL 24, 2023

In addition, some white neighborhoods had zoning laws that legally banned non-white buyers from owning homes in those neighborhoods. million new minority homeowners when the president launched the Blueprint for the American Dream in 2002. This means that the most likely buyer for many of these new retirees will be a minority family.

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Legal Housing Market Government Buyers 396

Housing Wire

AUGUST 30, 2022

While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels. However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Case in point, purchase application data is already below 2008 levels today.

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Inventory New Listings Law Housing Market 397

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 27, 2022

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage broke 7% for the first time since April 2002, leading to greater stagnation in the housing market,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement. This translates to a whopping $1,000 increase in the typical home payment in just the last year,” Jones said in a statement. . “I

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Mortgage Loan Officers Clients Housing Market 397

Appraisal Buzz

MAY 17, 2021

Between 2002-2005 in many markets, the real estate market was scorching, much like it is today. Prices were escalating quickly, and buyers were purchasing in a frenzy for fear of being left behind and not being able to get their foot on the property ladder. This is no different than ignoring declining trends.

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Appraisal Clients Real Estate Sellers 418

Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

The housing market is in a recession, something that the homebuilders and the National Association of Realtors now agree with me on, as this recent CNBC clip shows. Over the years, I have tried to emphasize that the housing market in the U.S. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This is 12.6

Construction 370

Construction Housing Market Sellers Real Estate 370

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2021

Even in the extreme conditions of COVID-19, my general premise on housing economics predicted that the two variables with the most influence — demographics and mortgage rates — would hold up the housing market. Also, the market we have today doesn’t look like the credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. The forecast.

Housing Market 544

Housing Market Inventory Mortgage Marketing 544

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2022

The truth here that nobody wants to talk about is that we didn’t have a massive sales credit boom in housing from 2020-2021 like we saw from 2002-2005. That would reverse the problem the housing market has had selling homes with mortgage rates above 7%. percent (±22.7 percent (±13.0

Construction 370

Construction Housing Market Mortgage Sellers 370

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

The loan profile of buyers during the post-2010 expansion is excellent, so when the next job loss recession happens, we won’t lose as many homeowners (compared to what occurred after the Great Recession). housing market like these bearish Americans and foreign citizens were screaming about in 2020 and 2021.

Inventory 370

Inventory Housing Market Legal Mortgage 370

Will Springer Realtor

OCTOBER 11, 2022

Seriously though, there must be a ceiling to rising rates that have all but extinguished a robust housing market. We are now seeing “7s” in front of some rates to new mortgage consumers – a figure not seen since April 2002 – causing applications for new loans to hit a 25-year low this month. ( TREATING YOURSELF EVERY DAY.

Housing Market 36

Housing Market Marketing Real Estate Buyers 36

Will Springer Realtor

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

The housing market in and around King County was moving along swimmingly at the start of 2022, with homes selling briskly and buyers taking advantage of interest rates in the 3s. and jump in mortgage rates of 4 percentage points has created a housing market belly flop. They’re also down 19% in Seattle and 4.0%

New Listings 36

New Listings Housing Market Inventory Buyers 36

Appraisal Today

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

Keep them up to date in every step of the report so that they can keep the Lender (and the Buyer/Seller/Realtor/Closing Attorneys when applicable) all in the loop on the progress of the report. Buyer-Borrower Remorse. Essentially, the cases are situations of “buyer-borrower remorse.” Have a very responsive credo.

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Reconsideration of Value Appraisal Inspection Advertising 52