Housing Wire

JUNE 21, 2024

However, what is different this year from 2023 is that we have more sellers that will be buyers. Of course, the housing market didn’t have the credit sales boom it had from 2002-2005, but it lacked inventory. Just as they did in 2023, higher rates took the winds out of the growing sales numbers.

Inventory 482

Inventory Housing Market New Listings Contracts 482

Housing Wire

AUGUST 21, 2020

The second part of this story that folks seem to forget is that the existing home sales market only needs 4 million mortgage buyers a year to remain stable. Note too, that the housing market for the last many years has been composed of 15-20% cash buyers – that is a big chunk of buyers that don’t need a mortgage in order to purchase.

Housing Market 544

Housing Market Mortgage Buyers Marketing 544

Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2022

We simply cannot finish homes in America promptly, and now that mortgage rates are over 5%, some buyers won’t be able to purchase a home. Housing in 2020 and 2021 benefited from rates between 2.5% – 3.75% , which gave buyers more purchasing power. The builders are mindful of this and will be cautious on single-family starts.

Mortgage 493

Mortgage Construction Contracts Housing Market 493

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2022

The housing market of 2002-2005 had four years of sales growth facilitated by credit. However, what isn’t identical is that we have not had a massive sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This is significantly different than the period from 2002-2005 when credit expansion was booming. Home sales. Housing credit.

Housing Market 546

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 546

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2020

Because housing demand is at pre-cycle highs, we can infer home prices are not an issue for most buyers. nominal home price growth every year for the next several years, affordability will be an issue for some buyers. However, this does not mean that real home prices may grow at an unhealthy pace in the years 2020-2024.

Housing Market 545

Housing Market Buyers Realtors Marketing 545

Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Of course, housing starts today aren’t collapsing in the way they did from the peak of 2005 because we haven’t had a sales credit boom in recent years as we did from 2002-2005, which inflated new home sales toward 1.4 The credit cycle looks much different now than the build-up from 2002-2005.

Mortgage 533

Mortgage Construction Inventory Buyers 533

Housing Wire

JULY 19, 2022

Some buyers had to wait forever before they could lock in their rate, meaning they didn’t qualify for their homes as rates moved up so fast. We never saw the credit sales boom as we did from 2002-2005, so the builders themselves are in a better position to manage their future. This data line is already below 2008 levels currently.

Housing Market 526

Housing Market Marketing Construction Real Estate 526

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 27, 2022

.” Houses were selling at a fever pitch in a matter of days, with multiple offers, waived contingencies and buyers paying $100,000(!) The number of home listings dried up , contracts were canceled , the few buyers still out there demanded concessions , mortgage rates spiked to 7% and homebuilder sentiment hit rock bottom.

Housing Market 529

Housing Market Marketing Real Estate Agent Real Estate 529

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 18, 2023

The second day of the trial for the Sitzer/Burnett bombshell class action buyer broker commission class action lawsuit included plenty of insights into how the plaintiffs are approaching what is expected to be a battle royal. When you reduce the commission, you reduce the incentive for that agent to bring a buyer to your house.

Training 459

Training Agents Real Estate Real Estate Agent 459

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2020

Because housing is becoming an outperforming asset, we may see an increase in cash buyers in 2021 as a percent of sales. The majority of home buyers in America buy homes to live in, not for an investment. This is the big difference between the housing market now and what we saw in 2002-2005, when we saw a lot of speculation going on.

Housing Market 543

Housing Market Marketing Construction Buyers 543

Housing Wire

JUNE 16, 2022

As rates rise, this will impact the builders more as they try to find buyers for current homes in cancellation. As you can see below, housing completion data hasn’t done much for many years, unlike 2002-2005. But, this data line should grow a tad more while they finish up homes that they do have buyers for.

Housing Market 545

Housing Market Buyers Mortgage Construction 545

Housing Wire

MARCH 18, 2022

NAR Research : First-time buyers were responsible for 29% of sales in February; Individual investors purchased 19% of homes; All-cash sales accounted for 25% of transactions; Distressed sales represented less than 1% of sales; Properties typically remained on the market for 18 days. We have solid replacement buyers: people needing shelter.

Housing Market 542

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 542

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

Traditionally, housing starts, permits, and completions would move together, like what we saw in 2002-2005. From 2002-2005 it was a steady rise to the top of the housing bubble, and then it burst. Over the last six weeks, we have seen that buyers came back in the data line when mortgage rates fell from 7.373% to 6.12%.

Housing Market 448

Housing Market Marketing Construction Supply Chain 448

Appraisal Buzz

MAY 17, 2021

Between 2002-2005 in many markets, the real estate market was scorching, much like it is today. Prices were escalating quickly, and buyers were purchasing in a frenzy for fear of being left behind and not being able to get their foot on the property ladder. This is no different than ignoring declining trends. How do we combat this?

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Appraisal Clients Real Estate Sellers 418

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2023

From NAR : “December was another difficult month for buyers, who continue to face limited inventory and high mortgage rates ,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. This means we don’t have enough housing inventory available because with lending standards back to normal we can’t replicate the credit demand we saw in housing from 2002-2005.

Inventory 541

Inventory Housing Market New Listings Marketing 541

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

This business model means that the builders are very mindful of the demand for their product and keep an eye out on their main competition, the existing home market, where supply is cheaper for a buyer. They can cut prices, pay down mortgage rates for their buyers, and do what they need to to make it work for them to move their products.

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Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 545

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

It’s also driven more by mortgage buyers who tend to be older and make more money than the new-home buyers. Compared to the existing home sales marketplace, it doesn’t have a high cash buyer or investor buyer profile. This sector on an apples-to-apples basis is more expensive than the existing home sales market.

Mortgage 505

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 505

Housing Wire

APRIL 24, 2023

In addition, some white neighborhoods had zoning laws that legally banned non-white buyers from owning homes in those neighborhoods. million new minority homeowners when the president launched the Blueprint for the American Dream in 2002. This means that the most likely buyer for many of these new retirees will be a minority family.

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Legal Housing Market Government Buyers 396

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

The new home sales market doesn’t have a 28% cash-buyer profile as we saw in the last existing home sales report. So, while cash buyers as a percent of sales have been growing, this sector is driven by mortgage buyers primarily. Builders have to find buyers for canceled homes, then think about their demand.

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Construction Buyers Housing Market Inventory 370

Housing Wire

AUGUST 30, 2022

However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. One of the issues with existing home inventory has been that, for the most part, a traditional seller is usually a buyer of a home. Nor can we ever have a credit sales boom again with lending standards back to normal. million listings.

Inventory 397

Inventory New Listings Law Housing Market 397

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2022

A traditional primary resident seller is also a buyer, which means if they don’t list, they’re not just taking a potential home to be bought off the table — they’re taking a future sale off the books as well. However, it’s not the market of 2002-2011. From NAR Research : “Total existing-home sales notched a minor contraction of 0.4%

Inventory 482

Inventory Housing Market New Listings Mortgage 482

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 5, 2022

It boxed out many first-time homebuyers who found themselves unable to compete against buyers willing to place a non-contingent offer above full price. In fact, while in won’t match 2020 or 2021, purchase mortgage dollar volume should be better than any year from 2002–2020. Buying now means being able to negotiate as a buyer.

Housing Market 523

Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Mortgage 523

Housing Wire

MARCH 17, 2022

We had more housing starts during the bubble years because from 2002 to 2005 that demand curve was higher, but it was facilitated by unhealthy credit growth. The buyers are frustrated beyond belief with how long the process is taking while they watch rates rise. As we can see below, slow and steady wins this race.

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Construction Housing Market Inventory Buyers 488

Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2023

We don’t have a massive credit boom as purchase application data is at historical lows; we haven’t had the same run-up in credit as we saw from 2002-2005. This is why I always draw the black line on the chart below — to show people that we haven’t had a credit boom for many years.

Housing Market 539

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 539

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

This time around, we have not seen the kind of housing credit boom that we did from 2002-2005. NAR total inventory data 1,250,000 One thing about purchase application data and demand is that a traditional seller is typically a buyer of a home. Post-2012, whenever mortgage rates rise, existing home sales always trend below 5 million.

New Listings 508

New Listings Inventory Housing Market Sellers 508

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 27, 2022

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage broke 7% for the first time since April 2002, leading to greater stagnation in the housing market,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement. A year ago at this time, rates averaged 3.14%. The survey, conducted weekly since 1990, covers 75% of all U.S.

Mortgage 397

Mortgage Loan Officers Clients Housing Market 397

Housing Wire

MAY 19, 2022

Because we had a housing credit bubble from 2002 to 2005, the credit demand push on exotic loan debt structures was a setup for future forced credit selling. Even though mortgage rates are historically low, they still always matter because mortgage buyers are the biggest homebuyers in America.

Housing Market 528

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Realtors 528

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 7, 2022

As you can see from the chart above, the last several years have not had the FOMO (fear of missing out) housing credit boom we saw from 2002-2005. million, the equilibrium balance between a buyer and seller marketplace that has been here for four decades. Accordingly, we also haven’t had a credit bust in the data line.

Housing Market 544

Housing Market Mortgage Marketing Inventory 544

Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. The housing construction cycle is over, but the builders will finish their homes under contract and hope rates will fall soon to lock up buyers. Now the trick for the builders is figuring out how much they need to discount to get buyers to buy the homes under construction.

Construction 370

Construction Housing Market Sellers Real Estate 370

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2021

I understand that grifters have to keep the grift going, but not even the Joker would say that the housing market lives off investors and not mortgage buyers. As you can see below, we don’t have a booming credit housing market as we saw from 2002-2005; we have steady replacement buyer demand.

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Inventory Housing Market Investors Marketing 516

Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

Logan Mohtashami: Rising rates make housing less affordable, so for a first-time home buyer that doesn’t have the benefit of selling their home with that nested equity, it makes it harder for them. This is much different from the marketplace we saw from 2002-2005, a massive credit bubble. months on a 3-month average.

Housing Market 370

Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Inventory 370

Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2022

history are ages 26-32, and the first-time median home buyer age is now 33. Again, what happened in housing from 2002 to 2008? Our market is much different than that 2002-2008 period. Don’t forget the mortgage buyer is the most significant homebuyer out there; they matter the most. We are currently a t 1.7

Housing Market 418

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Lending 418

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2022

The truth here that nobody wants to talk about is that we didn’t have a massive sales credit boom in housing from 2020-2021 like we saw from 2002-2005. You could have specific buyers that need to sell their current home in order to buy a new home and don’t want to bother with it now since rates are so much higher.

Construction 370

Construction Housing Market Mortgage Sellers 370

Housing Wire

AUGUST 11, 2020

So, early in my career, I sought for ways to help would-be buyers, most being minorities, bridge the gap and achieve homeownership earlier. In the early 2000s, many — including myself — believed empowering someone with a home for sale to contribute to the buyer’s down payment was a small way to help deserving families.

Government 448

Government Sellers Development Mortgage 448

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

The loan profile of buyers during the post-2010 expansion is excellent, so when the next job loss recession happens, we won’t lose as many homeowners (compared to what occurred after the Great Recession). The market of 2002-2005 not only had an explosion in debt growth, but the debt structures themselves were also very exotic.

Inventory 370

Inventory Housing Market Legal Mortgage 370

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2022

Housing demand has been stable for the past few years; we have never had a credit boom in demand since 2002-2005. From NAR : Total existing-home sales dipped 2.7% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in March. So, we never had a credit bust as we saw from 2005 to 2008.

Housing Market 505

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 505

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 11, 2022

This doesn’t mean homebuyers don’t have something of an edge now: As inventory has increased and buying power has faded, the buyers who are available are dealing with a lot less competition as the bidding wars are ending. However, as we can see below, we are not back to the historical norms of 2-2.5 million active listings, but at just 1.28

Sellers 514

Sellers Inventory Housing Market New Listings 514